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Huachipato vs Nublense — Primera División 2018

Huachipato
Huachipato
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nublense
Nublense
P. Sanchez 82'
5/31/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 13Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Huachipato44%
×Draw27%
Nublense29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huachipato
1.39
Nublense
1.06

Huachipato creates 31% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 83 away

creates per match

Huachipato
1.45
Nublense
1.13

allows per match

Huachipato
1.00
Nublense
1.33

finishing

Huachipato+0.00on par
Nublense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

Nublense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw
71%
Huachipato or Nublense
73%
Draw or Nublense
56%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+
21%
Nublense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals
75%
Huachipato 2+ goals
40%
Huachipato 3+ goals
16%
Nublense 1+ goals
65%
Nublense 2+ goals
29%
Nublense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)
61%
Nublense (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 127 matches

Nublense away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 1.45 + Nublense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Nublense attack 1.13 + Huachipato defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Huachipato scores more
44%
level
27%
Nublense scores more
29%

Huachipato at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Huachipato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
B. CerezoNublenseNublense · D
7.7

Match Events

15'
Carlos Labrín
20'
Gonzalo Sosa
25'
Patricio Rubio
28'
Federico Mateos
38'
Brayan Garrido
45+1'
Osvaldo Bosso
63'
J. A. Martinez← B. Garrido
63'
M. Briceno← J. Figueroa
63'
P. Sanchez← G. Sosa
79'
J. I. Gutierrez Jara← M. Gutierrez
79'
O. Ortega← C. Villanueva
82'
P. Sanchez↳ P. Rubio
85'
L. Molina← P. Rubio
87'
Oscar Ortega
87'
Brea← N. Vargas
90+2'
R. Gonzalez← G. Graciani

Possession

43%Huachipato

Shots

9Huachipato

Pass accuracy

49%Huachipato

Statistics

HuachipatoNublense
Overview
43%Possession57%
9Total Shots16
0Corners3
17Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots16
2On Target5
6Off Target4
1Blocked7
4Inside Box9
5Outside Box7
Passing
43%Possession57%
314Total Passes416
236Accurate Passes327
75%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls15
2Yellow Cards5
1Offsides1

Primera División: Huachipato 0–1 Nublense

Nublense beat Huachipato 1-0 in Primera División on May 31, 2025.

Goals: P. Sanchez (82').

Nublense controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero in Talcahuano.