Nublense 1–0 Everton de Vina: Result & Stats

Nublense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Everton de Vina

8/3/2025

Primera División · Round 18Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Nublense44%

×Draw26%

Everton de Vina30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NublenseExpected goals in this matchEverton de Vina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.13

Nublense

1.44

Everton de Vina

1.13

Nublense creates 27% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 127 away

1.46

creates per match

1.17

1.08

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Nublense

1.46

Everton de Vina

1.17

allows per match

Nublense

1.08

Everton de Vina

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nublense+0.00on par

Everton de Vina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nublense ↓

Everton de Vina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nublense or draw

70%

Nublense or Everton de Vina

74%

Draw or Everton de Vina

56%

Winning margin

Nublense wins by 2+

21%

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nublense 1+ goals

76%

Nublense 2+ goals

42%

Nublense 3+ goals

18%

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

68%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

31%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nublense (draw refunded)

60%

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nublense at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 84 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nublense attack 1.46 + Everton de Vina defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Everton de Vina attack 1.17 + Nublense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nublense scores more

44%

level

26%

Everton de Vina scores more

30%

Nublense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nublense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff