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Nublense vs Deportes Valdivia — Primera B 2018

Nublense
Nublense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
3/15/2020Primera BPrimera B · Round 4Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Nublense57%
×Draw22%
Deportes Valdivia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nublense
1.96
Deportes Valdivia
1.11

Nublense creates 77% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 36 away

creates per match

Nublense
1.86
Deportes Valdivia
1.06

allows per match

Nublense
1.16
Deportes Valdivia
2.06

finishing

Nublense+0.00on par
Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nublense ↓

Deportes Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Nublense or draw
79%
Nublense or Deportes Valdivia
78%
Draw or Deportes Valdivia
43%

Winning margin

Nublense wins by 2+
34%
Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nublense 1+ goals
86%
Nublense 2+ goals
58%
Nublense 3+ goals
31%
Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
67%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
30%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nublense (draw refunded)
73%
Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nublense at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nublense attack 1.86 + Deportes Valdivia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.96

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.06 + Nublense defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nublense scores more
57%
level
22%
Deportes Valdivia scores more
21%

Nublense at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nublense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Nublense 2–1 Deportes Valdivia

Nublense beat Deportes Valdivia 2-1 in Primera B on March 15, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún in Chillán.