Nublense 0–0 Coquimbo Unido: Result & Stats

Nublense

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Coquimbo Unido

4/21/2025

Primera División · Round 8Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Nublense44%

×Draw26%

Coquimbo Unido29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NublenseExpected goals in this matchCoquimbo Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.10

Nublense

1.42

Coquimbo Unido

1.10

Nublense creates 29% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 97 away

1.46

creates per match

1.13

1.08

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Nublense

1.46

Coquimbo Unido

1.13

allows per match

Nublense

1.08

Coquimbo Unido

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nublense+0.00on par

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nublense ↓

Coquimbo Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nublense or draw

71%

Nublense or Coquimbo Unido

74%

Draw or Coquimbo Unido

56%

Winning margin

Nublense wins by 2+

21%

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nublense 1+ goals

76%

Nublense 2+ goals

41%

Nublense 3+ goals

17%

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

67%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

30%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nublense (draw refunded)

60%

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nublense at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 84 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nublense attack 1.46 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.13 + Nublense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nublense scores more

44%

level

26%

Coquimbo Unido scores more

29%

Nublense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nublense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff