Nublense 1–1 Boston River: Result & Stats

Nublense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Boston River

2/26/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nublense33%

×Draw33%

Boston River33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NublenseExpected goals in this matchBoston River

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

Nublense

0.88

Boston River

0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

0.50

1.25

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Nublense

1.00

Boston River

0.50

allows per match

Nublense

1.25

Boston River

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nublense+0.00on par

Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nublense ↓

Boston River →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Nublense or draw

67%

Nublense or Boston River

67%

Draw or Boston River

67%

Winning margin

Nublense wins by 2+

12%

Boston River wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nublense 1+ goals

59%

Nublense 2+ goals

22%

Nublense 3+ goals

6%

Boston River 1+ goals

59%

Boston River 2+ goals

22%

Boston River 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nublense (draw refunded)

50%

Boston River (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nublense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Boston River away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nublense attack 1.00 + Boston River defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Boston River attack 0.50 + Nublense defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Nublense scores more

33%

level

33%

Boston River scores more

33%

Nublense at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Nublense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff