Nublense 1–0 Barnechea: Result & Stats | Primera B

Nublense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barnechea

M. Briceño 6'

10/12/2020

Primera B · Round 15Estadio CAP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nublense50%

×Draw24%

Barnechea25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NublenseExpected goals in this matchBarnechea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.13

Nublense

1.69

Barnechea

1.13

Nublense creates 50% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 95 away

1.86

creates per match

1.09

1.16

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Nublense

1.86

Barnechea

1.09

allows per match

Nublense

1.16

Barnechea

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nublense+0.00on par

Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nublense ↓

Barnechea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nublense or draw

75%

Nublense or Barnechea

76%

Draw or Barnechea

50%

Winning margin

Nublense wins by 2+

27%

Barnechea wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nublense 1+ goals

82%

Nublense 2+ goals

50%

Nublense 3+ goals

24%

Barnechea 1+ goals

68%

Barnechea 2+ goals

31%

Barnechea 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nublense (draw refunded)

66%

Barnechea (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nublense at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nublense attack 1.86 + Barnechea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.69

Barnechea attack 1.09 + Nublense defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nublense scores more

50%

level

24%

Barnechea scores more

25%

Nublense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nublense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. Briceño

17'

F. J. Mateos

18'

M. Rivera

46'

G. Cubillos← C. Muñoz

56'

G. Cubillos

56'

J. Navarrete← L. Valenzuela

64'

B. Sagredo

65'

C. Bustamante← S. Pérez

66'

A. Carvallo← O. Ortega

77'

D. Henríquez← N. Ortiz

83'

K. Valenzuela← M. Briceño

83'

S. Romero← I. Rozas

88'

P. Araya← M. Arguinarena

90'

90+1'

90+1'

90+3'

Nublense

Barnechea

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. García

56'▲J. Navarrete←▼L. Valenzuela

65'▲C. Bustamante←▼S. Pérez

66'▲A. Carvallo←▼O. Ortega

83'▲K. Valenzuela←▼M. Briceño

83'▲S. Romero←▼I. Rozas

Nublense substitutes

NavarreteBustamanteCarvalloValenzuelaRomeroTurraJiménez

Manager: R. Ávila

46'▲G. Cubillos←▼C. Muñoz

77'▲D. Henríquez←▼N. Ortiz

88'▲P. Araya←▼M. Arguinarena

Barnechea substitutes

CubillosHenríquezArayaIbarraVuottoMoewesCayupi

Primera B: Nublense 1–0 Barnechea

Nublense beat Barnechea 1-0 in Primera B on October 12, 2020.

Goals: M. Briceño (6').

The match was played at Estadio CAP in Talcahuano.

Nublense vs Barnechea — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Nublense 1–0 Barnechea