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NTUPES vs Tatung — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

NTUPES
NTUPES
FT
0 – 3
Tatung
Tatung
4/14/2021Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 2National Taiwan University Zhubei Branch Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

NTUPES22%
×Draw20%
Tatung58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NTUPES
1.29
Tatung
2.21

Tatung creates 71% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 71 away

creates per match

NTUPES
1.19
Tatung
1.85

allows per match

NTUPES
2.58
Tatung
1.39

finishing

NTUPES+0.00on par
Tatung+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NTUPES ↓

Tatung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

NTUPES or draw
42%
NTUPES or Tatung
80%
Draw or Tatung
78%

Winning margin

NTUPES wins by 2+
9%
Tatung wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

NTUPES 1+ goals
72%
NTUPES 2+ goals
37%
NTUPES 3+ goals
14%
Tatung 1+ goals
89%
Tatung 2+ goals
65%
Tatung 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

NTUPES (draw refunded)
27%
Tatung (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NTUPES at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

Tatung away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.39 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NTUPES attack 1.19 + Tatung defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tatung attack 1.85 + NTUPES defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

NTUPES scores more
22%
level
20%
Tatung scores more
58%

Tatung at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tatung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NTUPES vs Tatung

Tatung beat NTUPES 3-0 in Taiwan Football Premier League on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at National Taiwan University Zhubei Branch Stadium in Zhubei City.