NTNUI 1–3 Aalesund II: Result & Stats

NTNUI

FT

1 – 3

Aalesund II

10/4/2021

3. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 9Koteng Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

NTNUI25%

×Draw22%

Aalesund II53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NTNUIExpected goals in this matchAalesund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.93

NTNUI

1.27

Aalesund II

1.93

Aalesund II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

1.00

creates per match

1.85

2.00

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

NTNUI

1.00

Aalesund II

1.85

allows per match

NTNUI

2.00

Aalesund II

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NTNUI+0.00on par

Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NTNUI ↓

Aalesund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

NTNUI or draw

47%

NTNUI or Aalesund II

78%

Draw or Aalesund II

75%

Winning margin

NTNUI wins by 2+

10%

Aalesund II wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

NTNUI 1+ goals

72%

NTNUI 2+ goals

36%

NTNUI 3+ goals

14%

Aalesund II 1+ goals

85%

Aalesund II 2+ goals

57%

Aalesund II 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

NTNUI (draw refunded)

32%

Aalesund II (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NTNUI at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NTNUI attack 1.00 + Aalesund II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Aalesund II attack 1.85 + NTNUI defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

NTNUI scores more

25%

level

22%

Aalesund II scores more

53%

Aalesund II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff