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Nsuopun Fidelity vs UCC Youngsters — Division One League 2025

Nsuopun Fidelity
Nsuopun Fidelity
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
UCC Youngsters
UCC Youngsters
12/21/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nsuopun Fidelity62%
×Draw21%
UCC Youngsters17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsuopun Fidelity
2.00
UCC Youngsters
0.94

Nsuopun Fidelity creates 113% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nsuopun Fidelity
1.93
UCC Youngsters
1.00

allows per match

Nsuopun Fidelity
0.87
UCC Youngsters
2.07

finishing

Nsuopun Fidelity+0.00on par
UCC Youngsters+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsuopun Fidelity ↓

UCC Youngsters →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nsuopun Fidelity or draw
83%
Nsuopun Fidelity or UCC Youngsters
79%
Draw or UCC Youngsters
38%

Winning margin

Nsuopun Fidelity wins by 2+
38%
UCC Youngsters wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nsuopun Fidelity 1+ goals
86%
Nsuopun Fidelity 2+ goals
59%
Nsuopun Fidelity 3+ goals
32%
UCC Youngsters 1+ goals
61%
UCC Youngsters 2+ goals
24%
UCC Youngsters 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nsuopun Fidelity (draw refunded)
78%
UCC Youngsters (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsuopun Fidelity at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

UCC Youngsters away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsuopun Fidelity attack 1.93 + UCC Youngsters defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.00

UCC Youngsters attack 1.00 + Nsuopun Fidelity defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Nsuopun Fidelity scores more
62%
level
21%
UCC Youngsters scores more
17%

Nsuopun Fidelity at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Nsuopun Fidelity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Nsuopun Fidelity 2–3 UCC Youngsters

UCC Youngsters beat Nsuopun Fidelity 3-2 in Division One League on December 21, 2025.