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Nsuopun Fidelity vs Police National — Division One League 2025

Nsuopun Fidelity
Nsuopun Fidelity
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Police National
Police National
3/8/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nsuopun Fidelity59%
×Draw25%
Police National16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsuopun Fidelity
1.56
Police National
0.67

Nsuopun Fidelity creates 133% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nsuopun Fidelity
1.93
Police National
0.47

allows per match

Nsuopun Fidelity
0.87
Police National
1.20

finishing

Nsuopun Fidelity+0.00on par
Police National+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsuopun Fidelity ↓

Police National →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nsuopun Fidelity or draw
84%
Nsuopun Fidelity or Police National
75%
Draw or Police National
41%

Winning margin

Nsuopun Fidelity wins by 2+
32%
Police National wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nsuopun Fidelity 1+ goals
79%
Nsuopun Fidelity 2+ goals
46%
Nsuopun Fidelity 3+ goals
21%
Police National 1+ goals
49%
Police National 2+ goals
15%
Police National 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nsuopun Fidelity (draw refunded)
79%
Police National (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsuopun Fidelity at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Police National away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsuopun Fidelity attack 1.93 + Police National defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.56

Police National attack 0.47 + Nsuopun Fidelity defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Nsuopun Fidelity scores more
59%
level
25%
Police National scores more
16%

Nsuopun Fidelity at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Nsuopun Fidelity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nsuopun Fidelity vs Police National

Police National beat Nsuopun Fidelity 2-1 in Division One League on March 8, 2026.