Nsuopun Fidelity 2–0 King Faisal: Result & Stats

Nsuopun Fidelity

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

King Faisal

10/3/2025

Division One League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nsuopun Fidelity56%

×Draw25%

King Faisal19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nsuopun FidelityExpected goals in this matchKing Faisal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.83

Nsuopun Fidelity

1.63

King Faisal

0.83

Nsuopun Fidelity creates 96% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.93

creates per match

0.80

0.87

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Nsuopun Fidelity

1.93

King Faisal

0.80

allows per match

Nsuopun Fidelity

0.87

King Faisal

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nsuopun Fidelity+0.00on par

King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsuopun Fidelity ↓

King Faisal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nsuopun Fidelity or draw

81%

Nsuopun Fidelity or King Faisal

75%

Draw or King Faisal

44%

Winning margin

Nsuopun Fidelity wins by 2+

31%

King Faisal wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nsuopun Fidelity 1+ goals

80%

Nsuopun Fidelity 2+ goals

48%

Nsuopun Fidelity 3+ goals

22%

King Faisal 1+ goals

56%

King Faisal 2+ goals

20%

King Faisal 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nsuopun Fidelity (draw refunded)

75%

King Faisal (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsuopun Fidelity at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsuopun Fidelity attack 1.93 + King Faisal defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.63

King Faisal attack 0.80 + Nsuopun Fidelity defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Nsuopun Fidelity scores more

56%

level

25%

King Faisal scores more

19%

Nsuopun Fidelity at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nsuopun Fidelity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff