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Nsuopun Fidelity vs Ebusua Dwarfs — Division One League 2025

Nsuopun Fidelity
Nsuopun Fidelity
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
10/17/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nsuopun Fidelity49%
×Draw27%
Ebusua Dwarfs23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsuopun Fidelity
1.40
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.87

Nsuopun Fidelity creates 61% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nsuopun Fidelity
1.93
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.87

allows per match

Nsuopun Fidelity
0.87
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.87

finishing

Nsuopun Fidelity+0.00on par
Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsuopun Fidelity ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nsuopun Fidelity or draw
77%
Nsuopun Fidelity or Ebusua Dwarfs
73%
Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs
51%

Winning margin

Nsuopun Fidelity wins by 2+
24%
Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nsuopun Fidelity 1+ goals
75%
Nsuopun Fidelity 2+ goals
41%
Nsuopun Fidelity 3+ goals
17%
Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
58%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
22%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nsuopun Fidelity (draw refunded)
68%
Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsuopun Fidelity at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsuopun Fidelity attack 1.93 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.87 + Nsuopun Fidelity defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nsuopun Fidelity scores more
49%
level
27%
Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
23%

Nsuopun Fidelity at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nsuopun Fidelity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Nsuopun Fidelity 3–0 Ebusua Dwarfs

Nsuopun Fidelity beat Ebusua Dwarfs 3-0 in Division One League on October 17, 2025.