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Nsuopun Fidelity vs Ashanti Gold — Division One League 2025

Nsuopun Fidelity
Nsuopun Fidelity
FT
3 – 0
Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
5/3/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nsuopun Fidelity45%
×Draw27%
Ashanti Gold28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsuopun Fidelity
1.36
Ashanti Gold
1.00

Nsuopun Fidelity creates 36% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nsuopun Fidelity
1.93
Ashanti Gold
1.13

allows per match

Nsuopun Fidelity
0.87
Ashanti Gold
0.80

finishing

Nsuopun Fidelity+0.00on par
Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsuopun Fidelity ↓

Ashanti Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nsuopun Fidelity or draw
72%
Nsuopun Fidelity or Ashanti Gold
73%
Draw or Ashanti Gold
55%

Winning margin

Nsuopun Fidelity wins by 2+
21%
Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nsuopun Fidelity 1+ goals
74%
Nsuopun Fidelity 2+ goals
39%
Nsuopun Fidelity 3+ goals
16%
Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
63%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
26%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nsuopun Fidelity (draw refunded)
62%
Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsuopun Fidelity at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Ashanti Gold away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsuopun Fidelity attack 1.93 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ashanti Gold attack 1.13 + Nsuopun Fidelity defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nsuopun Fidelity scores more
45%
level
27%
Ashanti Gold scores more
28%

Nsuopun Fidelity at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nsuopun Fidelity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nsuopun Fidelity vs Ashanti Gold

Nsuopun Fidelity beat Ashanti Gold 3-0 in Division One League on May 3, 2026.