Nsoatreman 1–0 Tamale City: Result & Stats

Nsoatreman

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tamale City

B. Mahamah 68'

11/16/2022

Premier League · Round 7Nana Professor Koromansa II Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nsoatreman55%

×Draw31%

Tamale City14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NsoatremanExpected goals in this matchTamale City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.46

Nsoatreman

1.22

Tamale City

0.46

Nsoatreman creates 165% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 17 away

1.20

creates per match

0.41

0.52

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Nsoatreman

1.20

Tamale City

0.41

allows per match

Nsoatreman

0.52

Tamale City

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nsoatreman+0.00on par

Tamale City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsoatreman ↓

Tamale City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Nsoatreman or draw

86%

Nsoatreman or Tamale City

69%

Draw or Tamale City

45%

Winning margin

Nsoatreman wins by 2+

26%

Tamale City wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Nsoatreman 1+ goals

70%

Nsoatreman 2+ goals

34%

Nsoatreman 3+ goals

12%

Tamale City 1+ goals

37%

Tamale City 2+ goals

8%

Tamale City 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Nsoatreman (draw refunded)

80%

Tamale City (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsoatreman at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.52 · 46 matches

Tamale City away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsoatreman attack 1.20 + Tamale City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Tamale City attack 0.41 + Nsoatreman defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nsoatreman scores more

55%

level

31%

Tamale City scores more

14%

Nsoatreman at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nsoatreman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

C. Boateng

68'

B. Mahamah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff