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Nsoatreman vs Medeama — Premier League 2019

Nsoatreman
Nsoatreman
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Medeama
Medeama
1/8/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Nana Professor Koromansa II Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Nsoatreman48%
×Draw31%
Medeama21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsoatreman
1.19
Medeama
0.69

Nsoatreman creates 72% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 110 away

creates per match

Nsoatreman
1.20
Medeama
0.85

allows per match

Nsoatreman
0.52
Medeama
1.19

finishing

Nsoatreman+0.00on par
Medeama+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsoatreman ↓

Medeama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nsoatreman or draw
79%
Nsoatreman or Medeama
69%
Draw or Medeama
52%

Winning margin

Nsoatreman wins by 2+
21%
Medeama wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nsoatreman 1+ goals
70%
Nsoatreman 2+ goals
33%
Nsoatreman 3+ goals
12%
Medeama 1+ goals
50%
Medeama 2+ goals
15%
Medeama 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nsoatreman (draw refunded)
69%
Medeama (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsoatreman at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.52 · 46 matches

Medeama away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.19 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsoatreman attack 1.20 + Medeama defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Medeama attack 0.85 + Nsoatreman defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nsoatreman scores more
48%
level
31%
Medeama scores more
21%

Nsoatreman at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nsoatreman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nsoatreman 1–1 Medeama

Nsoatreman and Medeama drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 8, 2025.

The match was played at Nana Professor Koromansa II Park in Nsoatre.