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Nsoatreman vs Hearts of Oak — Premier League 2019

Nsoatreman
Nsoatreman
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
3/3/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Nana Professor Koromansa II Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Nsoatreman45%
×Draw34%
Hearts of Oak22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsoatreman
1.03
Hearts of Oak
0.62

Nsoatreman creates 66% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 108 away

creates per match

Nsoatreman
1.20
Hearts of Oak
0.72

allows per match

Nsoatreman
0.52
Hearts of Oak
0.86

finishing

Nsoatreman+0.00on par
Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsoatreman ↓

Hearts of Oak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Nsoatreman or draw
78%
Nsoatreman or Hearts of Oak
66%
Draw or Hearts of Oak
55%

Winning margin

Nsoatreman wins by 2+
18%
Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nsoatreman 1+ goals
64%
Nsoatreman 2+ goals
28%
Nsoatreman 3+ goals
9%
Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
46%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
13%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nsoatreman (draw refunded)
67%
Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsoatreman at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.52 · 46 matches

Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsoatreman attack 1.20 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + Nsoatreman defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nsoatreman scores more
45%
level
34%
Hearts of Oak scores more
22%

Nsoatreman at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nsoatreman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nsoatreman vs Hearts of Oak

Hearts of Oak beat Nsoatreman 2-1 in Premier League on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Nana Professor Koromansa II Park in Nsoatre.