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Nsoatreman vs Basake Holy Stars — Premier League 2019

Nsoatreman
Nsoatreman
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Basake Holy Stars
Basake Holy Stars
10/20/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Nana Professor Koromansa II Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Nsoatreman62%
×Draw26%
Basake Holy Stars12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsoatreman
1.48
Basake Holy Stars
0.48

Nsoatreman creates 208% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 33 away

creates per match

Nsoatreman
1.20
Basake Holy Stars
0.45

allows per match

Nsoatreman
0.52
Basake Holy Stars
1.76

finishing

Nsoatreman+0.00on par
Basake Holy Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsoatreman ↓

Basake Holy Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nsoatreman or draw
88%
Nsoatreman or Basake Holy Stars
74%
Draw or Basake Holy Stars
38%

Winning margin

Nsoatreman wins by 2+
33%
Basake Holy Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Nsoatreman 1+ goals
77%
Nsoatreman 2+ goals
43%
Nsoatreman 3+ goals
19%
Basake Holy Stars 1+ goals
38%
Basake Holy Stars 2+ goals
8%
Basake Holy Stars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Nsoatreman (draw refunded)
84%
Basake Holy Stars (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsoatreman at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.52 · 46 matches

Basake Holy Stars away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsoatreman attack 1.20 + Basake Holy Stars defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Basake Holy Stars attack 0.45 + Nsoatreman defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Nsoatreman scores more
62%
level
26%
Basake Holy Stars scores more
12%

Nsoatreman at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Nsoatreman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nsoatreman vs Basake Holy Stars

Nsoatreman beat Basake Holy Stars 2-0 in Premier League on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Nana Professor Koromansa II Park in Nsoatre.