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Nsoatreman vs Asante Kotoko — Premier League 2019

Nsoatreman
Nsoatreman
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
2/2/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Nana Professor Koromansa II Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Nsoatreman43%
×Draw33%
Asante Kotoko24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsoatreman
1.03
Asante Kotoko
0.68

Nsoatreman creates 51% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 109 away

creates per match

Nsoatreman
1.20
Asante Kotoko
0.84

allows per match

Nsoatreman
0.52
Asante Kotoko
0.87

finishing

Nsoatreman+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsoatreman ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Nsoatreman or draw
76%
Nsoatreman or Asante Kotoko
67%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
57%

Winning margin

Nsoatreman wins by 2+
17%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nsoatreman 1+ goals
64%
Nsoatreman 2+ goals
28%
Nsoatreman 3+ goals
9%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
49%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
15%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nsoatreman (draw refunded)
65%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsoatreman at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.52 · 46 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.87 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsoatreman attack 1.20 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.03

Asante Kotoko attack 0.84 + Nsoatreman defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nsoatreman scores more
43%
level
33%
Asante Kotoko scores more
24%

Nsoatreman at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nsoatreman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nsoatreman vs Asante Kotoko

Nsoatreman beat Asante Kotoko 1-0 in Premier League on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Nana Professor Koromansa II Park in Nsoatre.