Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nsoatreman vs Aduana Stars — Premier League 2019

Nsoatreman
Nsoatreman
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
11/16/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Nana Professor Koromansa II Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Nsoatreman51%
×Draw30%
Aduana Stars19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsoatreman
1.23
Aduana Stars
0.64

Nsoatreman creates 92% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 110 away

creates per match

Nsoatreman
1.20
Aduana Stars
0.75

allows per match

Nsoatreman
0.52
Aduana Stars
1.25

finishing

Nsoatreman+0.00on par
Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsoatreman ↓

Aduana Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nsoatreman or draw
81%
Nsoatreman or Aduana Stars
70%
Draw or Aduana Stars
49%

Winning margin

Nsoatreman wins by 2+
23%
Aduana Stars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nsoatreman 1+ goals
71%
Nsoatreman 2+ goals
35%
Nsoatreman 3+ goals
13%
Aduana Stars 1+ goals
47%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
14%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nsoatreman (draw refunded)
72%
Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsoatreman at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.52 · 46 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsoatreman attack 1.20 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + Nsoatreman defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nsoatreman scores more
51%
level
30%
Aduana Stars scores more
19%

Nsoatreman at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nsoatreman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nsoatreman vs Aduana Stars

Nsoatreman and Aduana Stars drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Nana Professor Koromansa II Park in Nsoatre.