Nsingizini Hotspurs 1–0 Rangers FC: Result & Stats

Nsingizini Hotspurs

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rangers FC

1/10/2026

Premier League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Nsingizini Hotspurs51%

×Draw28%

Rangers FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nsingizini HotspursExpected goals in this matchRangers FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.78

Nsingizini Hotspurs

1.38

Rangers FC

0.78

Nsingizini Hotspurs creates 77% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 56 away

1.36

creates per match

0.93

0.62

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Nsingizini Hotspurs

1.36

Rangers FC

0.93

allows per match

Nsingizini Hotspurs

0.62

Rangers FC

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nsingizini Hotspurs+0.00on par

Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsingizini Hotspurs ↓

Rangers FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nsingizini Hotspurs or draw

79%

Nsingizini Hotspurs or Rangers FC

72%

Draw or Rangers FC

49%

Winning margin

Nsingizini Hotspurs wins by 2+

25%

Rangers FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nsingizini Hotspurs 1+ goals

75%

Nsingizini Hotspurs 2+ goals

40%

Nsingizini Hotspurs 3+ goals

16%

Rangers FC 1+ goals

54%

Rangers FC 2+ goals

18%

Rangers FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Nsingizini Hotspurs (draw refunded)

71%

Rangers FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsingizini Hotspurs at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.62 · 53 matches

Rangers FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.39 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsingizini Hotspurs attack 1.36 + Rangers FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Rangers FC attack 0.93 + Nsingizini Hotspurs defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nsingizini Hotspurs scores more

51%

level

28%

Rangers FC scores more

21%

Nsingizini Hotspurs at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nsingizini Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff