Nsingizini Hotspurs 4–0 Madlenya: Result & Stats

Nsingizini Hotspurs

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Madlenya

11/6/2024

Premier League · Round 5King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Nsingizini Hotspurs59%

×Draw25%

Madlenya17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nsingizini HotspursExpected goals in this matchMadlenya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.73

Nsingizini Hotspurs

1.63

Madlenya

0.73

Nsingizini Hotspurs creates 123% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 41 away

1.36

creates per match

0.85

0.62

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Nsingizini Hotspurs

1.36

Madlenya

0.85

allows per match

Nsingizini Hotspurs

0.62

Madlenya

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nsingizini Hotspurs+0.00on par

Madlenya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsingizini Hotspurs ↓

Madlenya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nsingizini Hotspurs or draw

83%

Nsingizini Hotspurs or Madlenya

75%

Draw or Madlenya

41%

Winning margin

Nsingizini Hotspurs wins by 2+

32%

Madlenya wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Nsingizini Hotspurs 1+ goals

80%

Nsingizini Hotspurs 2+ goals

48%

Nsingizini Hotspurs 3+ goals

22%

Madlenya 1+ goals

52%

Madlenya 2+ goals

17%

Madlenya 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Nsingizini Hotspurs (draw refunded)

78%

Madlenya (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsingizini Hotspurs at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.62 · 53 matches

Madlenya away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.90 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsingizini Hotspurs attack 1.36 + Madlenya defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.63

Madlenya attack 0.85 + Nsingizini Hotspurs defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Nsingizini Hotspurs scores more

59%

level

25%

Madlenya scores more

17%

Nsingizini Hotspurs at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Nsingizini Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff