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Nsingizini Hotspurs vs Green Mamba — Premier League 2020

Nsingizini Hotspurs
Nsingizini Hotspurs
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Green Mamba
Green Mamba
11/30/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Nsingizini Hotspurs37%
×Draw29%
Green Mamba34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsingizini Hotspurs
1.11
Green Mamba
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 84 away

creates per match

Nsingizini Hotspurs
1.36
Green Mamba
1.49

allows per match

Nsingizini Hotspurs
0.62
Green Mamba
0.86

finishing

Nsingizini Hotspurs+0.00on par
Green Mamba+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsingizini Hotspurs ↓

Green Mamba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nsingizini Hotspurs or draw
66%
Nsingizini Hotspurs or Green Mamba
71%
Draw or Green Mamba
63%

Winning margin

Nsingizini Hotspurs wins by 2+
15%
Green Mamba wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nsingizini Hotspurs 1+ goals
67%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 2+ goals
30%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 3+ goals
10%
Green Mamba 1+ goals
65%
Green Mamba 2+ goals
28%
Green Mamba 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nsingizini Hotspurs (draw refunded)
52%
Green Mamba (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsingizini Hotspurs at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.62 · 53 matches

Green Mamba away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsingizini Hotspurs attack 1.36 + Green Mamba defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.11

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Nsingizini Hotspurs defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nsingizini Hotspurs scores more
37%
level
29%
Green Mamba scores more
34%

Nsingizini Hotspurs at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nsingizini Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nsingizini Hotspurs 0–2 Green Mamba

Green Mamba beat Nsingizini Hotspurs 2-0 in Premier League on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium in Nhlangano.