Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

NSI Runavik vs MB — Løgmanssteypid 2019

NSI Runavik
NSI Runavikadvanced
FT
14 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
MB
MB
4/21/2023LøgmanssteypidLøgmanssteypid · Round of 16við Løkin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

NSI Runavik98%
×Draw2%
MB1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NSI Runavik
6.83
MB
0.70

NSI Runavik creates 876% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

NSI Runavik
4.00
MB
0.00

allows per match

NSI Runavik
1.40
MB
9.67

finishing

NSI Runavik+0.00on par
MB+0.00on par

Total goals

96%Over
  • Over96
  • Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NSI Runavik ↓

MB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–12%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (10%) · grid covers 40% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
96%4%3.5
88%12%4.5
73%27%

Double chance

NSI Runavik or draw
99%
NSI Runavik or MB
98%
Draw or MB
2%

Winning margin

NSI Runavik wins by 2+
93%
MB wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

NSI Runavik 1+ goals
100%
NSI Runavik 2+ goals
98%
NSI Runavik 3+ goals
93%
MB 1+ goals
50%
MB 2+ goals
16%
MB 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

NSI Runavik (draw refunded)
99%
MB (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NSI Runavik at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

MB away — creates 0.00, concedes 9.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NSI Runavik attack 4.00 + MB defence 9.67 → ÷2 → 6.83

MB attack 0.00 + NSI Runavik defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 98%?"

NSI Runavik scores more
98%
level
2%
MB scores more
1%

NSI Runavik at 98% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 98% does not mean "NSI Runavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Løgmanssteypid: NSI Runavik 14–0 MB

NSI Runavik beat MB 14-0 in Løgmanssteypid on April 21, 2023.

The match was played at við Løkin in Runavík, Eysturoy.