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NSI Runavik vs KÍ II — 1. Deild 2019

NSI Runavik
NSI Runavik
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
KÍ II
KÍ II
5/20/20231. Deild1. Deild · Round 10við Løkin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

NSI Runavik55%
×Draw22%
KÍ II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NSI Runavik
2.02
KÍ II
1.27

NSI Runavik creates 59% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 94 away

creates per match

NSI Runavik
2.15
KÍ II
1.86

allows per match

NSI Runavik
0.69
KÍ II
1.90

finishing

NSI Runavik+0.00on par
KÍ II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NSI Runavik ↓

KÍ II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

NSI Runavik or draw
76%
NSI Runavik or KÍ II
78%
Draw or KÍ II
45%

Winning margin

NSI Runavik wins by 2+
32%
KÍ II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

NSI Runavik 1+ goals
87%
NSI Runavik 2+ goals
60%
NSI Runavik 3+ goals
33%
KÍ II 1+ goals
72%
KÍ II 2+ goals
36%
KÍ II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

NSI Runavik (draw refunded)
70%
KÍ II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NSI Runavik at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

KÍ II away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.90 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NSI Runavik attack 2.15 + KÍ II defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.02

KÍ II attack 1.86 + NSI Runavik defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

NSI Runavik scores more
55%
level
22%
KÍ II scores more
24%

NSI Runavik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "NSI Runavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: NSI Runavik 3–1 KÍ II

NSI Runavik beat KÍ II 3-1 in 1. Deild on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at við Løkin in Runavík, Eysturoy.