NSÍ II 0–1 Skála II: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

NSÍ II

FT

0 – 1

Skála II

6/21/2019

1. Deild · Round 14við Løkin (Runavík, Eysturoy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

NSÍ II45%

×Draw22%

Skála II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NSÍ IIExpected goals in this matchSkála II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.61

NSÍ II

1.92

Skála II

1.61

NSÍ II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 14 away

1.97

creates per match

1.21

2.02

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

NSÍ II

1.97

Skála II

1.21

allows per match

NSÍ II

2.02

Skála II

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NSÍ II+0.00on par

Skála II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NSÍ II ↓

Skála II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

NSÍ II or draw

67%

NSÍ II or Skála II

78%

Draw or Skála II

55%

Winning margin

NSÍ II wins by 2+

25%

Skála II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

NSÍ II 1+ goals

85%

NSÍ II 2+ goals

57%

NSÍ II 3+ goals

30%

Skála II 1+ goals

80%

Skála II 2+ goals

48%

Skála II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

NSÍ II (draw refunded)

58%

Skála II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NSÍ II at home — creates 1.97, concedes 2.02 · 89 matches

Skála II away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NSÍ II attack 1.97 + Skála II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.92

Skála II attack 1.21 + NSÍ II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

NSÍ II scores more

45%

level

22%

Skála II scores more

33%

NSÍ II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "NSÍ II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff