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NSÍ II vs B68 — 1. Deild 2019

NSÍ II
NSÍ II
FT
3 – 2
B68
B68
9/20/20191. Deild1. Deild · Round 24við Løkin (Runavík, Eysturoy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

NSÍ II36%
×Draw22%
B6842%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NSÍ II
1.71
B68
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 23 away

creates per match

NSÍ II
1.95
B68
1.65

allows per match

NSÍ II
2.07
B68
1.48

finishing

NSÍ II+0.00on par
B68+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NSÍ II ↓

B68 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

NSÍ II or draw
58%
NSÍ II or B68
78%
Draw or B68
64%

Winning margin

NSÍ II wins by 2+
18%
B68 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

NSÍ II 1+ goals
82%
NSÍ II 2+ goals
51%
NSÍ II 3+ goals
24%
B68 1+ goals
84%
B68 2+ goals
55%
B68 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

NSÍ II (draw refunded)
46%
B68 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NSÍ II at home — creates 1.95, concedes 2.07 · 82 matches

B68 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NSÍ II attack 1.95 + B68 defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.71

B68 attack 1.65 + NSÍ II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

NSÍ II scores more
36%
level
22%
B68 scores more
42%

B68 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "B68 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: NSÍ II 3–2 B68

NSÍ II beat B68 3-2 in 1. Deild on September 20, 2019.

The match was played at við Løkin (Runavík, Eysturoy).