NSA Sofia W 2–1 Rīgas FS W: Result & Stats

NSA Sofia W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rīgas FS W

8/21/2021

UEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - 3rd Place FinalsŠRC Bakovci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

NSA Sofia W66%

×Draw16%

Rīgas FS W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NSA Sofia WExpected goals in this matchRīgas FS W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.55

NSA Sofia W

3.00

Rīgas FS W

1.55

NSA Sofia W creates 94% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

0.40

2.71

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

NSA Sofia W

1.00

Rīgas FS W

0.40

allows per match

NSA Sofia W

2.71

Rīgas FS W

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NSA Sofia W+0.00on par

Rīgas FS W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NSA Sofia W ↓

Rīgas FS W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

NSA Sofia W or draw

82%

NSA Sofia W or Rīgas FS W

84%

Draw or Rīgas FS W

34%

Winning margin

NSA Sofia W wins by 2+

46%

Rīgas FS W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

NSA Sofia W 1+ goals

95%

NSA Sofia W 2+ goals

79%

NSA Sofia W 3+ goals

56%

Rīgas FS W 1+ goals

79%

Rīgas FS W 2+ goals

46%

Rīgas FS W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

NSA Sofia W (draw refunded)

79%

Rīgas FS W (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NSA Sofia W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Rīgas FS W away — creates 0.40, concedes 5.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NSA Sofia W attack 1.00 + Rīgas FS W defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Rīgas FS W attack 0.40 + NSA Sofia W defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

NSA Sofia W scores more

66%

level

16%

Rīgas FS W scores more

18%

NSA Sofia W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "NSA Sofia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff