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NSA Sofia W vs Kamenica Sasa W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

NSA Sofia W
NSA Sofia W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Kamenica Sasa W
Kamenica Sasa W
11/4/2020UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · R60310Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

NSA Sofia W75%
×Draw13%
Kamenica Sasa W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NSA Sofia W
3.67
Kamenica Sasa W
1.52

NSA Sofia W creates 141% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

NSA Sofia W
1.00
Kamenica Sasa W
0.33

allows per match

NSA Sofia W
2.71
Kamenica Sasa W
6.33

finishing

NSA Sofia W+0.00on par
Kamenica Sasa W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NSA Sofia W ↓

Kamenica Sasa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

NSA Sofia W or draw
88%
NSA Sofia W or Kamenica Sasa W
87%
Draw or Kamenica Sasa W
25%

Winning margin

NSA Sofia W wins by 2+
57%
Kamenica Sasa W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

NSA Sofia W 1+ goals
97%
NSA Sofia W 2+ goals
87%
NSA Sofia W 3+ goals
68%
Kamenica Sasa W 1+ goals
78%
Kamenica Sasa W 2+ goals
45%
Kamenica Sasa W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

NSA Sofia W (draw refunded)
86%
Kamenica Sasa W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NSA Sofia W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Kamenica Sasa W away — creates 0.33, concedes 6.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NSA Sofia W attack 1.00 + Kamenica Sasa W defence 6.33 → ÷2 → 3.67

Kamenica Sasa W attack 0.33 + NSA Sofia W defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

NSA Sofia W scores more
75%
level
13%
Kamenica Sasa W scores more
12%

NSA Sofia W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "NSA Sofia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NSA Sofia W vs Kamenica Sasa W

NSA Sofia W beat Kamenica Sasa W 3-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Sofia.