NŠ Drava 2–6 Triglav: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

NŠ Drava

FT

2 – 6

HT: 1 – 3

Triglav

M. Penič 57'

S. Rogina 36'

A. Ahmetaj 81', 72'

T. Matić 80' (pen), 37'

A. Pavlović 33'

M. Kopač 22'

9/17/2021

2. SNL · Round 8Mestni Štadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

NŠ Drava22%

×Draw23%

Triglav55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NŠ DravaExpected goals in this matchTriglav

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.88

NŠ Drava

1.10

Triglav

1.88

Triglav creates 71% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 88 away

1.10

creates per match

1.53

2.22

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

NŠ Drava

1.10

Triglav

1.53

allows per match

NŠ Drava

2.22

Triglav

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NŠ Drava+0.00on par

Triglav+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NŠ Drava ↓

Triglav →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

NŠ Drava or draw

45%

NŠ Drava or Triglav

77%

Draw or Triglav

78%

Winning margin

NŠ Drava wins by 2+

8%

Triglav wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

NŠ Drava 1+ goals

67%

NŠ Drava 2+ goals

30%

NŠ Drava 3+ goals

10%

Triglav 1+ goals

85%

Triglav 2+ goals

56%

Triglav 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

NŠ Drava (draw refunded)

28%

Triglav (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NŠ Drava at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.22 · 50 matches

Triglav away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NŠ Drava attack 1.10 + Triglav defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Triglav attack 1.53 + NŠ Drava defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

NŠ Drava scores more

22%

level

23%

Triglav scores more

55%

Triglav at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Triglav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

22'

33'

36'

37'

41'

N. Drevenšek← D. Kryeziu

57'

M. Penič

58'

L. Vuković← T. Matić

58'

N. Jekovec← Kim Do-hyun

70'

A. Ahmetaj← M. Čeh

72'

A. Ahmetaj

80'

T. MatićPenalty

81'

A. Ahmetaj

83'

A. Jakupovič← A. Zlatkov

83'

T. Idrizi← M. Kopač

NŠ

Triglav

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: P. Ognjenović

12'▲D. Kryeziu←▼N. Gajić

41'▲N. Drevenšek←▼D. Kryeziu

NŠ Drava substitutes

KryeziuDrevenšek

Manager: B. Miklič

58'▲L. Vuković←▼T. Matić

58'▲N. Jekovec←▼Kim Do-hyun

70'▲A. Ahmetaj←▼M. Čeh

83'▲A. Jakupovič←▼A. Zlatkov

83'▲T. Idrizi←▼M. Kopač

Triglav substitutes

VukovićJekovecAhmetajJakupovičIdriziAlagićTatili