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NŠ Drava vs Rudar — 2. SNL 2019

NŠ Drava
NŠ Drava
CANC
15:00
Rudar
Rudar
4/25/20212. SNL2. SNL · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

NŠ Drava32%
×Draw23%
Rudar45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NŠ Drava
1.45
Rudar
1.75

Rudar creates 21% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 86 away

creates per match

NŠ Drava
1.10
Rudar
1.27

allows per match

NŠ Drava
2.22
Rudar
1.79

finishing

NŠ Drava+0.00on par
Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NŠ Drava ↓

Rudar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

NŠ Drava or draw
55%
NŠ Drava or Rudar
77%
Draw or Rudar
68%

Winning margin

NŠ Drava wins by 2+
15%
Rudar wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

NŠ Drava 1+ goals
77%
NŠ Drava 2+ goals
42%
NŠ Drava 3+ goals
18%
Rudar 1+ goals
83%
Rudar 2+ goals
52%
Rudar 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

NŠ Drava (draw refunded)
42%
Rudar (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NŠ Drava at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.22 · 50 matches

Rudar away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.79 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NŠ Drava attack 1.10 + Rudar defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.45

Rudar attack 1.27 + NŠ Drava defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

NŠ Drava scores more
32%
level
23%
Rudar scores more
45%

Rudar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rudar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: NŠ Drava host Rudar

April 25, 2021: NŠ Drava take on Rudar in 2. SNL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.