NŠ Drava 0–1 Nafta: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

NŠ Drava

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nafta

Ž. Živko 52'

3/6/2020

2. SNL · Round 20Mestni Štadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

NŠ Drava21%

×Draw21%

Nafta58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NŠ DravaExpected goals in this matchNafta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.08

NŠ Drava

1.18

Nafta

2.08

Nafta creates 76% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 83 away

1.10

creates per match

1.95

2.22

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

NŠ Drava

1.10

Nafta

1.95

allows per match

NŠ Drava

2.22

Nafta

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NŠ Drava+0.00on par

Nafta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NŠ Drava ↓

Nafta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

NŠ Drava or draw

42%

NŠ Drava or Nafta

79%

Draw or Nafta

79%

Winning margin

NŠ Drava wins by 2+

8%

Nafta wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

NŠ Drava 1+ goals

69%

NŠ Drava 2+ goals

33%

NŠ Drava 3+ goals

12%

Nafta 1+ goals

87%

Nafta 2+ goals

61%

Nafta 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

NŠ Drava (draw refunded)

27%

Nafta (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NŠ Drava at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.22 · 50 matches

Nafta away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NŠ Drava attack 1.10 + Nafta defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Nafta attack 1.95 + NŠ Drava defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

NŠ Drava scores more

21%

level

21%

Nafta scores more

58%

Nafta at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nafta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

G. Bolla← B. Gergényi

52'

Ž. Živko

62'

A. Ploj← M. Ubochioma

74'

J. Akande← J. Dedić

87'

D. Živič← F. Šlamberger

90'

D. Molnár← V. Vinko

NŠ

Nafta

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Trenevski

74'▲J. Akande←▼J. Dedić

87'▲D. Živič←▼F. Šlamberger

NŠ Drava substitutes

AkandeŽivičMilićBojnecPušnik

Manager: D. Dončić

26'▲G. Bolla←▼B. Gergényi

62'▲A. Ploj←▼M. Ubochioma

90'▲D. Molnár←▼V. Vinko

Nafta substitutes

BollaPlojMolnárZagorecDrkŠerugaGaloši