NŠ Drava 3–2 Dravograd: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

NŠ Drava

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Dravograd

M. Bajrami 84'

L. Grajfoner 75'

M. Marcius 15'

Ž. Rožej 61'

N. Pečnik 50'

9/14/2019

2. SNL · Round 8Mestni Štadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

NŠ Drava47%

×Draw21%

Dravograd32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NŠ DravaExpected goals in this matchDravograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.66

NŠ Drava

2.05

Dravograd

1.66

NŠ Drava creates 23% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 10 away

1.10

creates per match

1.10

2.22

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

NŠ Drava

1.10

Dravograd

1.10

allows per match

NŠ Drava

2.22

Dravograd

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NŠ Drava+0.00on par

Dravograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NŠ Drava ↓

Dravograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

NŠ Drava or draw

68%

NŠ Drava or Dravograd

79%

Draw or Dravograd

53%

Winning margin

NŠ Drava wins by 2+

27%

Dravograd wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

NŠ Drava 1+ goals

87%

NŠ Drava 2+ goals

61%

NŠ Drava 3+ goals

33%

Dravograd 1+ goals

81%

Dravograd 2+ goals

49%

Dravograd 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

NŠ Drava (draw refunded)

60%

Dravograd (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NŠ Drava at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.22 · 50 matches

Dravograd away — creates 1.10, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NŠ Drava attack 1.10 + Dravograd defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Dravograd attack 1.10 + NŠ Drava defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

NŠ Drava scores more

47%

level

21%

Dravograd scores more

32%

NŠ Drava at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "NŠ Drava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

M. Marcius

46'

E. Petek← M. Verstovšek

50'

54'

61'

67'

75'

75'

81'

A. Vošnjak← E. Adomako

84'

M. Bajrami

86'

J. Dedić← M. Marcius

NŠ

Dravograd

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Vugdalić

54'▲S. Šlak←▼P. Turković

67'▲M. Kene←▼T. Nelson

86'▲J. Dedić←▼M. Marcius

NŠ Drava substitutes

ŠlakKeneDedićKačinariMelvanMilićŠlamberger

Manager: B. Kus

46'▲E. Petek←▼M. Verstovšek

75'▲S. Dobaj←▼N. Pečnik

81'▲A. Vošnjak←▼E. Adomako

Dravograd substitutes

PetekDobajVošnjakBevkKrajncBrzinSmrtnik

2. SNL: NŠ Drava 3–2 Dravograd

NŠ Drava beat Dravograd 3-2 in 2. SNL on September 14, 2019.

Goals: M. Marcius (15'), N. Pečnik (50'), Ž. Rožej (61'), L. Grajfoner (75'), M. Bajrami (84').

The match was played at Mestni Štadion in Ptuj.

NŠ Drava vs Dravograd — 2. SNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. SNL: NŠ Drava 3–2 Dravograd