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NŠ Drava vs Brežice — 3. SNL - East 2020

NŠ Drava
NŠ Drava
CANC
15:00
Brežice
Brežice
4/4/20263. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

NŠ Drava34%
×Draw27%
Brežice39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NŠ Drava
1.17
Brežice
1.29

Brežice creates 10% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

creates per match

NŠ Drava
1.00
Brežice
1.58

allows per match

NŠ Drava
1.00
Brežice
1.33

finishing

NŠ Drava+0.00on par
Brežice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NŠ Drava ↓

Brežice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

NŠ Drava or draw
61%
NŠ Drava or Brežice
73%
Draw or Brežice
66%

Winning margin

NŠ Drava wins by 2+
14%
Brežice wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

NŠ Drava 1+ goals
69%
NŠ Drava 2+ goals
33%
NŠ Drava 3+ goals
11%
Brežice 1+ goals
72%
Brežice 2+ goals
37%
Brežice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

NŠ Drava (draw refunded)
46%
Brežice (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NŠ Drava at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Brežice away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NŠ Drava attack 1.00 + Brežice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Brežice attack 1.58 + NŠ Drava defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NŠ Drava scores more
34%
level
27%
Brežice scores more
39%

Brežice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Brežice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NŠ Drava face Brežice (3. SNL - East)

3. SNL - East returns with NŠ Drava hosting Brežice. Match starts April 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.