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NŠ Drava vs Brda Dobrovo — 2. SNL 2019

NŠ Drava
NŠ Drava
CANC
15:00
Brda Dobrovo
Brda Dobrovo
5/9/20212. SNL2. SNL · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

NŠ Drava40%
×Draw23%
Brda Dobrovo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NŠ Drava
1.70
Brda Dobrovo
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 23 away

creates per match

NŠ Drava
1.10
Brda Dobrovo
1.00

allows per match

NŠ Drava
2.22
Brda Dobrovo
2.30

finishing

NŠ Drava+0.00on par
Brda Dobrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NŠ Drava ↓

Brda Dobrovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

NŠ Drava or draw
63%
NŠ Drava or Brda Dobrovo
77%
Draw or Brda Dobrovo
60%

Winning margin

NŠ Drava wins by 2+
21%
Brda Dobrovo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

NŠ Drava 1+ goals
82%
NŠ Drava 2+ goals
51%
NŠ Drava 3+ goals
24%
Brda Dobrovo 1+ goals
80%
Brda Dobrovo 2+ goals
48%
Brda Dobrovo 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

NŠ Drava (draw refunded)
52%
Brda Dobrovo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NŠ Drava at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.22 · 50 matches

Brda Dobrovo away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NŠ Drava attack 1.10 + Brda Dobrovo defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.70

Brda Dobrovo attack 1.00 + NŠ Drava defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NŠ Drava scores more
40%
level
23%
Brda Dobrovo scores more
37%

NŠ Drava at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "NŠ Drava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: NŠ Drava host Brda Dobrovo

May 9, 2021: NŠ Drava take on Brda Dobrovo in 2. SNL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.