NPA Anchors 0–5 Paynesville: Result & Stats

NPA Anchors

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Paynesville

12/1/2023

LFA First Division · Round 12Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

NPA Anchors28%

×Draw22%

Paynesville51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NPA AnchorsExpected goals in this matchPaynesville

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.01

NPA Anchors

1.44

Paynesville

2.01

Paynesville creates 40% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 40 away

1.17

creates per match

1.52

2.50

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

NPA Anchors

1.17

Paynesville

1.52

allows per match

NPA Anchors

2.50

Paynesville

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NPA Anchors+0.00on par

Paynesville+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NPA Anchors ↓

Paynesville →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

NPA Anchors or draw

49%

NPA Anchors or Paynesville

78%

Draw or Paynesville

72%

Winning margin

NPA Anchors wins by 2+

12%

Paynesville wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

NPA Anchors 1+ goals

76%

NPA Anchors 2+ goals

42%

NPA Anchors 3+ goals

18%

Paynesville 1+ goals

87%

Paynesville 2+ goals

59%

Paynesville 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

NPA Anchors (draw refunded)

35%

Paynesville (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NPA Anchors at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

Paynesville away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NPA Anchors attack 1.17 + Paynesville defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

Paynesville attack 1.52 + NPA Anchors defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

NPA Anchors scores more

28%

level

22%

Paynesville scores more

51%

Paynesville at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Paynesville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff