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NPA Anchors vs LPRC Oilers — LFA First Division 2020

NPA Anchors
NPA Anchors
FT
0 – 2
LPRC Oilers
LPRC Oilers
11/15/2020LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 3George Weah Technical Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

NPA Anchors22%
×Draw21%
LPRC Oilers57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NPA Anchors
1.21
LPRC Oilers
2.05

LPRC Oilers creates 69% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 75 away

creates per match

NPA Anchors
1.17
LPRC Oilers
1.60

allows per match

NPA Anchors
2.50
LPRC Oilers
1.24

finishing

NPA Anchors+0.00on par
LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NPA Anchors ↓

LPRC Oilers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

NPA Anchors or draw
43%
NPA Anchors or LPRC Oilers
79%
Draw or LPRC Oilers
78%

Winning margin

NPA Anchors wins by 2+
9%
LPRC Oilers wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

NPA Anchors 1+ goals
70%
NPA Anchors 2+ goals
34%
NPA Anchors 3+ goals
12%
LPRC Oilers 1+ goals
87%
LPRC Oilers 2+ goals
61%
LPRC Oilers 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

NPA Anchors (draw refunded)
28%
LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NPA Anchors at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

LPRC Oilers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NPA Anchors attack 1.17 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

LPRC Oilers attack 1.60 + NPA Anchors defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

NPA Anchors scores more
22%
level
21%
LPRC Oilers scores more
57%

LPRC Oilers at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: NPA Anchors 0–2 LPRC Oilers

LPRC Oilers beat NPA Anchors 2-0 in LFA First Division on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at George Weah Technical Center in Careysburg.