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NPA Anchors vs LISCR — LFA First Division 2020

NPA Anchors
NPA Anchors
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
LISCR
LISCR
4/10/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 26Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

NPA Anchors21%
×Draw21%
LISCR58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NPA Anchors
1.17
LISCR
2.06

LISCR creates 76% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 73 away

creates per match

NPA Anchors
1.17
LISCR
1.62

allows per match

NPA Anchors
2.50
LISCR
1.18

finishing

NPA Anchors+0.00on par
LISCR+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NPA Anchors ↓

LISCR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

NPA Anchors or draw
42%
NPA Anchors or LISCR
79%
Draw or LISCR
79%

Winning margin

NPA Anchors wins by 2+
8%
LISCR wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

NPA Anchors 1+ goals
69%
NPA Anchors 2+ goals
33%
NPA Anchors 3+ goals
11%
LISCR 1+ goals
87%
LISCR 2+ goals
61%
LISCR 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

NPA Anchors (draw refunded)
27%
LISCR (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NPA Anchors at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

LISCR away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NPA Anchors attack 1.17 + LISCR defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

LISCR attack 1.62 + NPA Anchors defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

NPA Anchors scores more
21%
level
21%
LISCR scores more
58%

LISCR at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "LISCR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: NPA Anchors 0–2 LISCR

LISCR beat NPA Anchors 2-0 in LFA First Division on April 10, 2024.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.