NPA Anchors 3–3 Freeport: Result & Stats

NPA Anchors

FT

3 – 3

Freeport

3/28/2021

LFA First Division · Round 15Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

NPA Anchors28%

×Draw22%

Freeport50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NPA AnchorsExpected goals in this matchFreeport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.91

NPA Anchors

1.39

Freeport

1.91

Freeport creates 37% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 75 away

1.17

creates per match

1.31

2.50

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

NPA Anchors

1.17

Freeport

1.31

allows per match

NPA Anchors

2.50

Freeport

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NPA Anchors+0.00on par

Freeport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NPA Anchors ↓

Freeport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

NPA Anchors or draw

50%

NPA Anchors or Freeport

78%

Draw or Freeport

72%

Winning margin

NPA Anchors wins by 2+

12%

Freeport wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

NPA Anchors 1+ goals

75%

NPA Anchors 2+ goals

40%

NPA Anchors 3+ goals

16%

Freeport 1+ goals

85%

Freeport 2+ goals

57%

Freeport 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

NPA Anchors (draw refunded)

36%

Freeport (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NPA Anchors at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

Freeport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NPA Anchors attack 1.17 + Freeport defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Freeport attack 1.31 + NPA Anchors defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

NPA Anchors scores more

28%

level

22%

Freeport scores more

50%

Freeport at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Freeport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff