Nový Jičín 1–0 Třinec II: Result & Stats

Nový Jičín

FT

1 – 0

Třinec II

8/15/2020

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 2Stadion TJ Sokol Kunín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nový Jičín41%

×Draw21%

Třinec II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nový JičínExpected goals in this matchTřinec II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.98

Nový Jičín

2.06

Třinec II

1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 4 away

1.61

creates per match

2.50

1.47

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Nový Jičín

1.61

Třinec II

2.50

allows per match

Nový Jičín

1.47

Třinec II

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nový Jičín+0.00on par

Třinec II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nový Jičín ↓

Třinec II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Nový Jičín or draw

62%

Nový Jičín or Třinec II

79%

Draw or Třinec II

59%

Winning margin

Nový Jičín wins by 2+

23%

Třinec II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Nový Jičín 1+ goals

87%

Nový Jičín 2+ goals

61%

Nový Jičín 3+ goals

34%

Třinec II 1+ goals

86%

Třinec II 2+ goals

59%

Třinec II 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Nový Jičín (draw refunded)

52%

Třinec II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nový Jičín at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.47 · 59 matches

Třinec II away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nový Jičín attack 1.61 + Třinec II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Třinec II attack 2.50 + Nový Jičín defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nový Jičín scores more

41%

level

21%

Třinec II scores more

38%

Nový Jičín at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nový Jičín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff