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Nový Jičín vs Beskyd Frenštát — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Nový Jičín
Nový Jičín
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
10/29/20224. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 13Stadion TJ Nový Jičín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Nový Jičín52%
×Draw22%
Beskyd Frenštát26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nový Jičín
1.99
Beskyd Frenštát
1.35

Nový Jičín creates 47% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 60 away

creates per match

Nový Jičín
1.61
Beskyd Frenštát
1.23

allows per match

Nový Jičín
1.47
Beskyd Frenštát
2.37

finishing

Nový Jičín+0.00on par
Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nový Jičín ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Nový Jičín or draw
74%
Nový Jičín or Beskyd Frenštát
78%
Draw or Beskyd Frenštát
48%

Winning margin

Nový Jičín wins by 2+
30%
Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nový Jičín 1+ goals
86%
Nový Jičín 2+ goals
59%
Nový Jičín 3+ goals
32%
Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
74%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
39%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nový Jičín (draw refunded)
67%
Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nový Jičín at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.47 · 59 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nový Jičín attack 1.61 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.99

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Nový Jičín defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nový Jičín scores more
52%
level
22%
Beskyd Frenštát scores more
26%

Nový Jičín at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nový Jičín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Nový Jičín 5–1 Beskyd Frenštát

Nový Jičín beat Beskyd Frenštát 5-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Nový Jičín in Nový Jičín.