Novosibirsk 2–0 Zenit Izhevsk: Result & Stats

Novosibirsk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Zenit Izhevsk

4/9/2022

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22RFTs Zarya manezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Novosibirsk52%

×Draw25%

Zenit Izhevsk23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NovosibirskExpected goals in this matchZenit Izhevsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.98

Novosibirsk

1.59

Zenit Izhevsk

0.98

Novosibirsk creates 62% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 41 away

1.51

creates per match

0.93

1.02

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Novosibirsk

1.51

Zenit Izhevsk

0.93

allows per match

Novosibirsk

1.02

Zenit Izhevsk

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novosibirsk ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Novosibirsk or draw

77%

Novosibirsk or Zenit Izhevsk

75%

Draw or Zenit Izhevsk

48%

Winning margin

Novosibirsk wins by 2+

27%

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Novosibirsk 1+ goals

80%

Novosibirsk 2+ goals

47%

Novosibirsk 3+ goals

21%

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals

62%

Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals

26%

Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Novosibirsk (draw refunded)

69%

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novosibirsk at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novosibirsk attack 1.51 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

Zenit Izhevsk attack 0.93 + Novosibirsk defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Novosibirsk scores more

52%

level

25%

Zenit Izhevsk scores more

23%

Novosibirsk at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff