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Novosibirsk vs Volgar Astrakhan — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
10/11/2025Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 13Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Novosibirsk47%
×Draw27%
Volgar Astrakhan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novosibirsk
1.38
Volgar Astrakhan
0.94

Novosibirsk creates 47% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

creates per match

Novosibirsk
1.71
Volgar Astrakhan
1.19

allows per match

Novosibirsk
0.68
Volgar Astrakhan
1.04

finishing

Novosibirsk+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novosibirsk ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Novosibirsk or draw
74%
Novosibirsk or Volgar Astrakhan
73%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
53%

Winning margin

Novosibirsk wins by 2+
23%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Novosibirsk 1+ goals
75%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
40%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
16%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
61%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
24%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
65%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novosibirsk at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novosibirsk attack 1.71 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.38

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.19 + Novosibirsk defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Novosibirsk scores more
47%
level
27%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
26%

Novosibirsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novosibirsk vs Volgar Astrakhan

Volgar Astrakhan beat Novosibirsk 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Novosibirsk.