Novosibirsk vs Lada Tolyatti — Second League - Group 4 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 41+ matches
Novosibirsk68%
Lada Tolyatti13%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Novosibirsk creates 158% more chances
Season form · 41 home / 41 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Novosibirsk ↓
Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Novosibirsk at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches
Lada Tolyatti away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.93 · 41 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Novosibirsk attack 1.51 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.22
Lada Tolyatti attack 0.71 + Novosibirsk defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 68%?"
Novosibirsk at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 68% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Lada Tolyatti substitutes
KAMAZ
Tyumen
Chelyabinsk
Volga UlyanovskNovosibirsk
Zvezda Perm
Dinamo Barnaul
Nosta
Ural II
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
Lada Dimitrovgrad
Zenit IzhevskLada Tolyatti
Krylya Sovetov II
Orenburg IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Novosibirsk host Lada Tolyatti on Saturday, 17 October 2020 at 10:00. The match is part of the Second League - Group 4 2020/2021 season.
Second League - Group 4: Novosibirsk 2–1 Lada Tolyatti
Novosibirsk beat Lada Tolyatti 2-1 in Second League - Group 4 on October 17, 2020.
Goals: M. Zhitnev (13', 54'), D. Romanov (78').
The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Novosibirsk.