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Novosibirsk vs Kaluga — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
FT
4 – 1
Kaluga
Kaluga
3/5/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Novosibirsk66%
×Draw19%
Kaluga16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novosibirsk
2.30
Kaluga
1.03

Novosibirsk creates 123% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Novosibirsk
2.17
Kaluga
0.57

allows per match

Novosibirsk
1.50
Kaluga
2.43

finishing

Novosibirsk+0.00on par
Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novosibirsk ↓

Kaluga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Novosibirsk or draw
84%
Novosibirsk or Kaluga
81%
Draw or Kaluga
34%

Winning margin

Novosibirsk wins by 2+
43%
Kaluga wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Novosibirsk 1+ goals
90%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
67%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
40%
Kaluga 1+ goals
64%
Kaluga 2+ goals
28%
Kaluga 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
81%
Kaluga (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novosibirsk at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Kaluga away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novosibirsk attack 2.17 + Kaluga defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.30

Kaluga attack 0.57 + Novosibirsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Novosibirsk scores more
66%
level
19%
Kaluga scores more
16%

Novosibirsk at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Novosibirsk 4–1 Kaluga

Novosibirsk beat Kaluga 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on March 5, 2021.