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Novosibirsk vs Amkar — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Amkar
Amkar
11/4/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 17Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Novosibirsk49%
×Draw26%
Amkar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novosibirsk
1.50
Amkar
0.98

Novosibirsk creates 53% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Novosibirsk
1.56
Amkar
1.28

allows per match

Novosibirsk
0.67
Amkar
1.44

finishing

Novosibirsk+0.00on par
Amkar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novosibirsk ↓

Amkar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Novosibirsk or draw
75%
Novosibirsk or Amkar
74%
Draw or Amkar
51%

Winning margin

Novosibirsk wins by 2+
25%
Amkar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Novosibirsk 1+ goals
78%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
44%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
19%
Amkar 1+ goals
62%
Amkar 2+ goals
26%
Amkar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
67%
Amkar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novosibirsk at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Amkar away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novosibirsk attack 1.56 + Amkar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Amkar attack 1.28 + Novosibirsk defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Novosibirsk scores more
49%
level
26%
Amkar scores more
25%

Novosibirsk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Novosibirsk 2–0 Amkar

Novosibirsk beat Amkar 2-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Novosibirsk.