Novorizontino 1–0 Volta Redonda: Result & Stats

Novorizontino

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Volta Redonda

Robson 57' (pen)

4/12/2025

Serie B · Round 2Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Novorizontino52%

×Draw24%

Volta Redonda24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NovorizontinoExpected goals in this matchVolta Redonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.10

Novorizontino

1.73

Volta Redonda

1.10

Novorizontino creates 57% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

1.69

creates per match

1.29

0.92

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Novorizontino

1.69

Volta Redonda

1.29

allows per match

Novorizontino

0.92

Volta Redonda

1.77

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-1.00scores less than expected

finishing

Novorizontino-0.22scores less

Volta Redonda-1.00scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino ↓

Volta Redonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Novorizontino or draw

76%

Novorizontino or Volta Redonda

76%

Draw or Volta Redonda

48%

Winning margin

Novorizontino wins by 2+

28%

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Novorizontino 1+ goals

82%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

52%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

25%

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

67%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

30%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

68%

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.92 · 19 matches

Volta Redonda away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino attack 1.69 + Volta Redonda defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.73

Volta Redonda attack 1.29 + Novorizontino defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Novorizontino scores more

52%

level

24%

Volta Redonda scores more

24%

Novorizontino at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Novorizontino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Rafael Donato

Novorizontino · D

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Ynaiã

54'

WaguininhoPenalty confirmed

55'

Robinho

55'

Fabricio

57'

RobsonPenalty

65'

PK← Ynaia

66'

Andre Luiz← Fabricio

66'

Mirandinha← Vitinho Lopes

69'

Pierre

71'

Bruno Santos← Robinho

71'

Marquinhos← Lucas Tocantins

72'

Hyuri

73'

Matheus Frizzo

76'

Bruno Jose← Waguininho

77'

Marlon← Luis Oyama

85'

Lucca← Robson

89'

Igor Formiga← Rodrigo Soares

89'

O. Ruiz← Matheus Frizzo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NovorizontinoVolta

Overview

54%Possession46%

20Total Shots3

6Corners1

16Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots3

6On Target0

9Off Target2

5Blocked1

11Inside Box2

9Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

395Total Passes343

335Accurate Passes271

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls9

1Yellow Cards5

3Offsides1

Serie B: Novorizontino 1–0 Volta Redonda

Novorizontino beat Volta Redonda 1-0 in Serie B on April 12, 2025.

Goals: Robson (57' pen).

Novorizontino controlled possession (54%) and registered 20 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in Novo Horizonte.

Novorizontino vs Volta Redonda — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Novorizontino 1–0 Volta Redonda