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Novorizontino vs Criciuma — Serie B 2026

Novorizontino
Novorizontino
Preview
22:30
Criciuma
Criciuma
7/21/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 19Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi
Big match
49%
Novorizontino
model favours
49%27%23%

Criciuma are unbeaten in 12 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Novorizontino49%
×Draw27%
Criciuma23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novorizontino
1.39
Criciuma
0.86

Novorizontino creates 62% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Novorizontino
1.68
Criciuma
0.77

allows per match

Novorizontino
0.96
Criciuma
1.10

finishing

Novorizontino-0.05on par
Criciuma-0.02on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino ↓

Criciuma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Novorizontino or draw
77%
Novorizontino or Criciuma
73%
Draw or Criciuma
51%

Winning margin

Novorizontino wins by 2+
24%
Criciuma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Novorizontino 1+ goals
75%
Novorizontino 2+ goals
40%
Novorizontino 3+ goals
16%
Criciuma 1+ goals
58%
Criciuma 2+ goals
21%
Criciuma 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino (draw refunded)
68%
Criciuma (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.96 · 8 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.10 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino attack 1.68 + Criciuma defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39

Criciuma attack 0.77 + Novorizontino defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Novorizontino scores more
49%
level
27%
Criciuma scores more
23%

Novorizontino at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Novorizontino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 100% of Criciuma’s matches
  • Criciuma have won 5 in a row
  • 87% of Criciuma’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Novorizontino have scored in 8 games running
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Novorizontino 4 vs Criciuma 1
  • 33% of Novorizontino’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Novorizontino
Balanced
Criciuma
Defensively solid
48%Possession50%
77%Pass accuracy76%
13.3Shots12.6
1.48xGBiggest gap0.90
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NovorizontinoCriciuma

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

4
Novorizontino
2
Draws
2
Criciuma
Avg goals: 1.9BTTS: 38%
0–21–12–01–03–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Novorizontino
LLWWW
Criciuma
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Novorizontino vs Criciuma — Match Preview

Novorizontino face Criciuma on July 21, 2026 in this Serie B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Novorizontino host Criciuma at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.