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Criciuma vs Novorizontino — Serie B 2026

Criciuma
Criciuma
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Novorizontino
Novorizontino
8/23/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 23Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Criciuma44%
×Draw30%
Novorizontino26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Criciuma
1.19
Novorizontino
0.84

Criciuma creates 42% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 86 away

creates per match

Criciuma
1.37
Novorizontino
0.93

allows per match

Criciuma
0.75
Novorizontino
1.01

finishing

Criciuma+0.00on par
Novorizontino+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Novorizontino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw
74%
Criciuma or Novorizontino
70%
Draw or Novorizontino
56%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+
19%
Novorizontino wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals
70%
Criciuma 2+ goals
33%
Criciuma 3+ goals
12%
Novorizontino 1+ goals
57%
Novorizontino 2+ goals
21%
Novorizontino 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)
63%
Novorizontino (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.75 · 104 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.01 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.37 + Novorizontino defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Novorizontino attack 0.93 + Criciuma defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Criciuma scores more
44%
level
30%
Novorizontino scores more
26%

Criciuma at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Criciuma 2–0 Novorizontino

Criciuma beat Novorizontino 2-0 in Serie B on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse in Criciúma, Santa Catarina.