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Novorizontino vs Botafogo SP — Serie B 2025

Novorizontino
Novorizontino
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP
Tavinho 69'
Guilherme Queiroz 81'
10/24/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 34Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Novorizontino50%
×Draw28%
Botafogo SP22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novorizontino
1.38
Botafogo SP
0.82

Novorizontino creates 68% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Novorizontino
1.53
Botafogo SP
0.72

allows per match

Novorizontino
0.92
Botafogo SP
1.22

finishing

Novorizontino+0.14scores more
Botafogo SP-0.39scores less

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino ↓

Botafogo SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Novorizontino or draw
78%
Novorizontino or Botafogo SP
72%
Draw or Botafogo SP
50%

Winning margin

Novorizontino wins by 2+
24%
Botafogo SP wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Novorizontino 1+ goals
75%
Novorizontino 2+ goals
40%
Novorizontino 3+ goals
16%
Botafogo SP 1+ goals
56%
Botafogo SP 2+ goals
20%
Botafogo SP 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino (draw refunded)
69%
Botafogo SP (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.92 · 6 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino attack 1.53 + Botafogo SP defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.38

Botafogo SP attack 0.72 + Novorizontino defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Novorizontino scores more
50%
level
28%
Botafogo SP scores more
22%

Novorizontino at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Novorizontino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
Rodrigo SoaresNovorizontinoNovorizontino · D
7.9

Match Events

67'
Tavinho← Bruno Jose
67'
Airton← Matheus Frizzo
69'
Tavinho↳ Rodrigo Soares
72'
Rafael Milhorim← G. Risso
72'
Jonathan Cafu← A. Dramisino
72'
Marquinho← Jefferson Nem
77'
Jean Irmer← Fabio Matheus
80'
L. Maciel← Wesley Dias
81'
Guilherme Queiroz↳ Gabriel Barros
82'
Guilherme Queiróz
85'
Alisson Cassiano← Wallison
86'
Pablo Dyego← Waguininho
86'
Lucca← Robson

Possession

61%Novorizontino

Shots

29Novorizontino

Pass accuracy

55%Novorizontino

Statistics

NovorizontinoBotafogo
Overview
61%Possession39%
29Total Shots8
4Corners3
8Fouls13
Shots
29Total Shots8
7On Target6
18Off Target2
4Blocked0
14Inside Box5
15Outside Box3
Passing
61%Possession39%
434Total Passes293
343Accurate Passes190
79%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
8Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Novorizontino vs Botafogo SP

Novorizontino and Botafogo SP drew 1-1 in Serie B on October 24, 2025.

Goals: Tavinho (69'), Guilherme Queiroz (81').

Novorizontino controlled possession (61%) and registered 29 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in Novo Horizonte.