Novorizontino 2–1 ABC: Result & Stats | Serie B

Novorizontino

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

ABC

Marlon 45+7'

Aylon 2'

Wallyson 90+7' (pen)

9/26/2023

Serie B · Round 29Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Novorizontino54%

×Draw26%

ABC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NovorizontinoExpected goals in this matchABC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.78

Novorizontino

1.50

ABC

0.78

Novorizontino creates 92% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 23 away

1.48

creates per match

0.70

0.86

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Novorizontino

1.48

ABC

0.70

allows per match

Novorizontino

0.86

ABC

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novorizontino+0.00on par

ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino ↓

ABC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Novorizontino or draw

81%

Novorizontino or ABC

74%

Draw or ABC

46%

Winning margin

Novorizontino wins by 2+

28%

ABC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Novorizontino 1+ goals

78%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

44%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

19%

ABC 1+ goals

54%

ABC 2+ goals

18%

ABC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

74%

ABC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.86 · 85 matches

ABC away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino attack 1.48 + ABC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

ABC attack 0.70 + Novorizontino defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Novorizontino scores more

54%

level

26%

ABC scores more

19%

Novorizontino at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Novorizontino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

César Martins

Novorizontino · D

7.5

Match Events

2'

Aylon↳ Zé Mateus

40'

Willean Lepu

40'

Gedeílson← Habraão

45+1'

Wallace

45+7'

Marlon↳ Douglas Baggio

46'

Maycon Douglas← Anderson

54'

Romulo← Aylon

59'

Alemão

66'

Wallyson← Paulo Sérgio

66'

Daniel Carvalho← Wallace

73'

Joãozinho← Douglas Baggio

73'

Ronaldo← Rodolfo

73'

Biel← Marlon

81'

82'

90+4'

90+3'

90+1'

90'

90+7'

WallysonPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NovorizontinoABC

Overview

49%Possession51%

14Total Shots12

2.61Expected Goals (xG)1.97

6Corners5

27Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots12

4On Target2

7Off Target6

3Blocked4

10Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

396Total Passes426

305Accurate Passes328

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

27Fouls17

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0